# Risk and Rates of Return

Case 84MStudent Version9/28/96
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Risk and Rates of Return

INSTRUCTIONS: This case begins with data on the state of the economy and returns on
Treasury securities, 3 different stocks, and the S&P index (market). The model calculates
the expected return, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for each of the assets
and for a 2-stock portfolio. The model allows you to change the mix of the 2-stock
portfolio and then see the change in the portfolio’s expected return and standard deviation.
In addition, the model uses the spreadsheet regresson feature to determine the equation for
each asset’s characteristic line, hence each asset’s beta coefficient. Note that if the input
data are changed, the regression analysis must be rerun. Four different graphs can be
viewed by clicking on the tabs at the bottom of the workbook.

A list of graphs follows:
PORTSIZEPortfolio Size and Risk, Q5

CHARLINECharacteristic Lines, Q7

SMLSecurity Market Line, Q8

SMLCHGSChanges in SML, Q10

The following cells have been blanked out:
I41:K45, D47:K47, E49:E50, D85:H89, C91, C228:C236, and E228:E236.
|::
———
INPUT AND MODEL-GENERATED DATA:
Portfolio Mix
——————-
% CPC50.0%% CPC40.0%% MORLEY50.0%
% MORLEY50.0%% EAT60.0%% EAT50.0%
NASDAQPort:
EconomyProb.T-BillsT-BondsCPCMORLEYEATIndexCPC-MORELY
——————————————————–
Recession0.104.5%10.0%-18.00%18.00%-13.00%-13.00%
Below avg0.204.5%7.0%-8.00%14.00%-6.00%-2.00%
Average0.404.5%5.0%11.00%6.00%10.00%11.00%
Above avg0.204.5%3.0%26.00%-1.00%20.00%17.00%
Boom0.104.5%2.0%35.00%-11.00%30.00%22.00%
——————————————————————–
Expected return4.50%
Variance0.032.0351.398.3234.1172.30.0
Std deviation0.00%5.66%9.91%15.30%13.13%0.00%
Coef of var (CV)0.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!
Beta coefficient0.00-0.220.00-0.771.221.00

SECURITY MARKET LINE:
Risk-free Rate:0.00%SML Equation:
Market Return:0.00%k = kRF + (kM – kRF)b
Beta:1.00k =0.00%+0.00%b
SML Equation:0.0%
|::
CHARACTERISTIC LINES:
XY
T-Bills(Market)(Bills)Est. Y
Regression Output:—
Constant0.05-13.0%4.5%4.5%
Std Err of Y Est0.00-2.0%4.5%4.5%
R Squared0.0011.0%4.5%4.5%
No. of Observations517.0%4.5%4.5%
Degrees of Freedom322.0%4.5%4.5%
———
X Coefficient(s)0.00
Std Err of Coef.
XY
T-Bonds(Market)(Bonds)Est. Y
Regression Output:—
Constant0.07-13.0%10.0%9.9%
Std Err of Y Est0.00-2.0%7.0%7.4%
R Squared0.9911.0%5.0%4.5%
No. of Observations517.0%3.0%3.2%
Degrees of Freedom322.0%2.0%2.1%

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